Now that the results of the U.S. Presidential election have been announced, many people around the world (and within the U.S.A.) are wondering what happens next. Will a President Trump change foreign policy on its head by such actions as withdrawing from NATO or embracing Russia? What will U.S. trade and economic policy be? In today’s world, while only Americans can vote, there are many non U.S. persons around the world who are either frightened or interested in how the U.S. will function in the world and indeed who feel themselves to be stakeholders both interested and impacted by American global activities. So here is a quick overview of what is to come:
1. Donald Trump the candidate will be different from Donald Trump the President. The U.S. Presidential election process is brutally tough. Americans want a strong leader who can do the job. And so, the election process is designed to prepare a person to be a successful President. We assume anyone who successfully survives the election process will be ready to be President. Mr. Trump has learned a lot and grown during this difficult campaign and he has more respect for the office of President now than he had before the campaign started. I am confident he will transition into his new role and be much more consensus-focused than he has been up till now. He has already said this during his excellent acceptance speech and he will continue on this path.
2. He will be serious about putting American first and tough negotiating trade deals and alliances like NATO. He will expect our European partners to contribute their fair share towards the collective defense. TTIP, in its current form is dead, but improved trade is not. After a review on both sides of the Atlantic, there will be a re-engagement (under a new name) to bring the U.S. and E.U. economies closer to an alignment. If both sides work professionally, we will have an improvement of trade relations which is mutually beneficial. But under a President Trump, the U.S. will be a tough negotiator, so the E.U. must want a deal for this to work.
3. President Trump will listen to Russia and be willing to give them respect. But he will not sell out Europe in the process. Don’t forget his wife is from Slovenia and his ancestors came from Germany. He will consider Europe as a part of his heritage and be predisposed to give support... so long as he (and the U.S.) are treated fairly.
4. The U.S. economy will continue to grow and the pace of that growth will accelerate. Indeed, President Trump will try to be domestically focused as strongly as he can. He will be pulled by world events to be internationally focused as required because of the role of the U.S. in the world.
5. He will build a stronger defense establishment but will do his best to hardly use this asset. He will not be eager to involve the U.S. in external military adventures.
6. He will likely be a two-term President.
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The American Chamber of Commerce in Luxembourg is an international business organization of over 450 companies (30% US, 20% Luxembourg origin and 50% international companies from around the world). AMCHAM provides four categories of services: Networking; Information about how to do things in Luxembourg; problem solving; and lobbying with the government. With 14 committees, an in-house magazine, “Connexion”, and 40 events per year, it is a very active international chamber which welcomes companies and individuals regardless of their national origin.http://www.amcham.lu